The fallacy of Backward Probability Calculation

Picture of Heath Ledger playing as the Joker character in The Dark Knight (2008) movie. He is holding a Joker card in his right hand while looking into the camera with a red smile carved on his face as in the movie.

By Eric Bright

Here is a simple puzzle for you with deep implications.

I have a deck of Bicycle cards with 52 cards plus two ? Jokers (a black and white and a coloured one), as well as one Bicycle ? introduction card, and an advertising card (56 cards in total).

I have been shuffling them for the past two months or so. Today, I got the following sequence of cards: read more...

Intellectually Dishonest – how to drive a poster crazy by your comments in forums

By Eric Bright

It’s curious to see how religious geniuses (Christians and the like) are almost the only ones who “find” flaws in articles such as this one; only them. You never have the “right interpretations” for what they think must be the case. You don’t see as many commenters under those posts who are (1) non-believers and (2) do not wish to cover their own asses by trying to take down anything that questions their sanities and (3) find something substantial about the argument to attack, instead of red herring and attacking a straw man of their own making. For that matter, you don’t find a commenter who only meets the first criteria in the list for posts such as that one. Isn’t it interesting? One should ask what their motives might be. Why only them and not anyone else? read more...

Science and religion are similarly invalid; or are they?

By Eric Bright

Science versus Religion

[Note to the reader: (1) This is not an ad hominem attack on the people mentioned in the post (the names are not real names). I don’t know them in person and I also don’t care who they are so far as this post is concerned. You should be able to change the names to anything else and the arguments should still hold valid. (2) If you prefer, you can download an ODT or a PDF version of this article from here:] read more...