The fallacy of Backward Probability Calculation

Picture of Heath Ledger playing as the Joker character in The Dark Knight (2008) movie. He is holding a Joker card in his right hand while looking into the camera with a red smile carved on his face as in the movie.

By Eric Bright

Here is a simple puzzle for you with deep implications.

I have a deck of Bicycle cards with 52 cards plus two 🃏 Jokers (a black and white and a coloured one), as well as one Bicycle 🚲 introduction card, and an advertising card (56 cards in total).

I have been shuffling them for the past two months or so. Today, I got the following sequence of cards:

K♥, 5♠, 6♦, 5♥, 8♠, 7♦, K♣, 8♣, A♠, 4♥, 2♥, J♥, 8♦, 🃏C, 3♠, Q♦, 🃏B&W, A♥, 5♦, A♦, 9♠, Q♣, 2♣, 10♣, 3♦, K♠, J♦, 7♥, 🚲-ad., 9♦, 7♣, A♣, 3♥, J♣, 8♥, 4♣, 3♣, 4♦, 2♠, 10♠, 🚲-intro, Q♠, 9♣, 6♣, 10♥, 7♠, J♠, 4♠, 6♠, 5♣, 6♥, 10♦, 9♥, Q♥, K♦, 2♦. read more...

Please cite this article as: Bright, Eric. (2018) The fallacy of Backward Probability Calculation. BlogSophy. https://sophy.ca/blog/2018/12/the-fallacy-of-backward-probability-calculation/

Is it possible to prove a negative?

there does not exists symbol
there does not exists symbol

Note: words in italic are technical terms with clear definitions in logic, which I’m going to omit explaining. Words in bold are substitutes for logical symbols with clear definitions and functions, which I’m going to omit explaining.

There are different kinds of impossibilities. One is physical. Another one is logical. Logical impossibilities are impossible, no matter what, no matter where, no matter the circumstances, no matter the universe, no matter the laws of nature, and no matter anything else. They are impossible and that’s the end of story. read more...

Please cite this article as: Bright, Eric. (2017) Is it possible to prove a negative?. BlogSophy. https://sophy.ca/blog/2017/12/is-it-possible-to-prove-a-negative/